'Not insurmountable' for Liberals to swing Conservative MP Larry Brock's seat in byelection: pollster

OTTAWA — The recent announcement that Conservative MP Larry Brock intends to resign from his Ontario seat in the House of Commons in mid-September, has opened the possibility of an “interesting” race between the Conservatives and Liberals, polling analysts say.

Brantford-Brant South-Six Nations riding was held by Brock for the last two elections, winning the seat over his Liberal competitor by 11 percentage points in the 2025 federal election. Brock announced his intention to resign his seat on Sept. 18 and return to his role in the Crown attorney’s office in Brantford, Ont.

In the interview with The Brantford Expositor on Friday, Brock said it was hard to make changes when his party was not in government.

“In Opposition you’re trying to do the right thing – to leave your mark on the Canadian justice system,” he said. “I tried my best, but I was running into a brick wall.”

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara Strategic Insights and former director of research for the Liberal Party of Canada for the 2015, 2019 and 2021 federal elections, said historically Brock’s seat has been viewed as a safe seat for the Conservatives, but says this time it could be in play.

“If everything broke the Liberals’ way or everything broke against the Conservatives, if there was a demoralized Conservative vote, if there was a weak candidate for them and a strong candidate for the Liberals, it’s at least within the realm of possible outcomes that the Liberals could win,” said Arnold, noting that 11 points is “not insurmountable.”

Philippe Fournier, creator of the poll analysis website 338Canada, said he still believes the Conservatives are favoured to win, but the contest may be closer than we think.

“This byelection will probably not occur until late fall or early winter,” said Fournier. “So, there’s time for things to change, but there’s also time for things to get worse for the Conservatives.”

Fournier also noted that the Conservatives have shed a few points among Ontario voters, compared to last year. Fournier said this race could serve as a test for Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre.

“If you expect to lose and you lose, it’s not as bad as if you expect to win and then you lose,” he said.

The contest in Brock’s vacated seat will mark the 11th byelection since the federal election in 2025, after the Liberals swept all three byelections in the spring in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne, and the Toronto ridings of University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest.

Byelections are scheduled for Aug. 28 in North Vancouver–Capilano and Beaches–East York and are heavily favoured for the Liberals.

There is also a byelection underway in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, after Conservative MP Richard Martel resigned his seat following his appointment to the Senate by Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Fournier said Chicoutimi is likely to be the most interesting contest, as it will be a three-way race between the Bloc Québécois, the Liberals and the Conservatives, but he also thinks Brantford could be the second-most interesting.

Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall, Liberal MP Steven Guilbeault and Independent MP Alexandre Boulerice are also expected to resign their seats.

A byelection will also happen in the riding of Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot-Acton, after Bloc Québécois MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay announced his resignation earlier this year.

While Wagatall’s Saskatchewan riding is a Conservative stronghold, Arnold said Guilbeault’s riding could be competitive.

“I think of the held ridings, that’s probably the one the Liberals will have the most difficulty with,” said Arnold.

National Post

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